Original article ISPreview UK:
A new report from the GSMA, which represents over 1,000 mobile operators and related businesses across the world, has warned that the next generation of 6G networks will require up to three times more mid-band radio spectrum to keep pace with surging data demands, AI-powered services and next-gen digital applications.
The notion of mobile operators demanding more spectrum frequency isn’t anything new, and it’s well known that mobile operators prize mid-band spectrum, which typically reflects the radio bands between 1GHz to 6GHz. Such bands offer a nice and economically friendly balance between network coverage and mobile broadband performance.
NOTE: 3GPP currently aim to complete the specs for 6G networks and terminals by 2029. The first commercial network builds are expected to surface around 2030, but some countries are anticipating early field trials around 2027/28.
The problem for mobile operators, governments and regulators alike is that they’re not the only ones using it. Various services from fixed wireless links to satellite, WiFi and other systems also have a claim over quite a bit of the same spectrum. Some parts of this, such as the Upper 6GHz band (6425 to 7125MHz), remain a key battleground between WiFi vendors and mobile operators.
Naturally, there’s plenty of spectrum to be found at higher frequencies than 1-6GHz, but those tend to result in signals that can carry a lot of data but which are very weak and don’t travel far or penetrate their coverage into buildings. The only way to mitigate that is by building a much denser and more expensive network, which is often not economically viable.
Suffice to say, it’s no big surprise to see the GSMA’s new report – ‘Vision 2040: Spectrum for the Future of Mobile Connectivity‘ – calling for mobile operators to be handed more mid-band spectrum. Particularly given how the next 6th Generation of mobile technology will be capable of even faster speeds, potentially reaching theoretical peak data rates of up to 1Tbps (Terabits per second) – shared bandwidth.
Key Findings
➤ By 2040, the study forecasts:
- More than 5 billion 6G connections, around half of all mobile connections globally
- 4G and 5G will remain essential, with around 2 billion 4G and 3 billion 5G connections still in use
➤ Global mobile traffic to reach up to 3,900 ExaBytes per month by 2040
Based on the study’s demand scenarios, global mobile traffic is forecast to reach:
- 1,700 EB/month in the low-growth scenario
- 3,900 EB/month in the high-growth scenario
This equates to 140–360 GB (GigaBytes) per mobile connection per month by 2040.
Traffic growth will be driven by continued 5G adoption, increasing numbers of “power users”, and new 6G-enabled applications including XR, integrated sensing and autonomous systems. The 10% of mobile users that generate 60–70% of total traffic today will increase over time, and the report notes this level of usage will become “normal behaviour” by 2040.
➤ Urban areas produce 83% of traffic but only represent 5% of global land area
The study finds that spectrum needs are determined by traffic in the densest urban zones:
- 83% of mobile traffic occurs in urban areas
- Those areas account for just ~5% of geographic territory
- Traffic density is 9× higher in very dense urban areas than other urban zones
- …and almost 700× higher than rural areas
These concentrations are where mid-band capacity becomes critical.
➤ 2–3 GHz of mid-band spectrum needed globally by 2035–2040
Taking into account projected traffic, expected improvements in spectral efficiency and modelling of dense urban capacity, the study concludes:
- Global average needs:2–3 GHz of mid-band spectrum
- Higher-demand countries (the top 50%): 5–4 GHz
- Most countries today have ~1 GHz identified for mobile use
- Therefore, an additional 1–3 GHz may be required to meet 6G-era demand
➤ 2 GHz needed by 2030 to avoid congestion
The analysis warns that if only 1 GHz of mid-band spectrum is available:
- Cities with over 50% of the world’s urban population will be capacity-constrained by 2030 (the beginning of the 6G deployment cycle) if mid-band spectrum remains at today’s levels.
In order to thus “prevent a decline in user experience“, the report stresses that 2GHz of mid-band spectrum must be operational by 2030. It also identifies several key candidate mid-bands under for future mobile use, including 8–4.2GHz (200–400 MHz), 4–4.99GHz (400–600 MHz), Upper 6 GHz (+700 MHz) and 7.125–8.4GHz: (600–1,275 MHz).
“The GSMA notes that each band has existing incumbents, meaning long-lead-time planning is essential for analysing spectrum use and release, device ecosystem development and global harmonisation,” which does rather assume that regulators will acquiesce to such demands.
John Giusti, Chief Regulatory Officer at GSMA, said:
“This study shows that the 6G era will require three times more mid-band spectrum than is available today. Satisfying these spectrum requirements will support robust and sustainable connectivity, deliver digital ambitions and help economies grow. I hope this report provides useful insights to governments as they strive to meet the connectivity needs of their citizens in the coming decade.”
The reality is that mobile operators are starting to run up against the hard and unavoidable truth of finite spectrum resources, but we certainly can’t blame them for pressing the point, and ultimately such decisions will be up to governments and regulators.
Now is certainly a crucial time for everybody to begin planning as they negotiate future mobile bands ahead of the WRC-27 treaty conference in 2027. But at the same time, regulators are unlikely to give them everything they want, and we suspect that there may also be various compromises, such as Ofcom’s proposal for WiFi and Mobile operators to share the Upper 6GHz band (here).
However, even if mobile operators were to get everything they want, there will still come a point in the future where network densification becomes unavoidable to overcome the inherent limitations of low and mid-band spectrum resources. But that will be expensive.
