Several recent statements and FCC filings for SpaceX’s popular Starlink service, which offers ultrafast broadband connectivity via a global mega constellation of satellites in Low Earth Orbit (LEO), have hinted that the provider is still aiming to deliver gigabit (1Gbps+) speeds to consumers, and they have a plan for achieving it.
At present Elon Musk’s Starlink network has 6,458 satellites (c.2,200 are v2 Mini / GEN 2A) in orbit – mostly at altitudes of c.500-600km – and they’re in the process of adding thousands more by the end of 2027. Customers in the UK typically pay from £75 a month for a 30-day term, plus £299 for hardware on the ‘Standard’ plan (inc. £20 postage), which promises internet latency times of 25-60ms, downloads of c. 25-100Mbps and uploads of c. 5-10Mbps.
However, those with a long enough memory may recall that, prior to its commercial launch, the operator was originally aiming to deliver up to 1Gbps speeds to customers (possibly even rising up to 10Gbps in the future). But once launched, the service has often struggled to get much above peaks of around 200-300Mbps, while average performance is still considerably lower.
For example, the average (median) UK download speed on Starlink is currently 90.7Mbps and this rises up to 156.9Mbps for those with the top 10% of fastest connections, while upload speeds average 11.2Mbps or 16.4Mbps for those in the top 10% (here). Suffice to say that the network is currently a long way off the 1Gbps+ mark, which also helps to keep it affordability.
What the future holds
SpaceX has long envisaged that their new Starship rocket, which is currently still a work-in-progress but is rapidly nearing the point of being able to handle commercial launches, as being the game changer that would be needed in order to loft a much larger number of fully sized (heavier) next generation v2 and even v3 Starlink satellites. Such satellites would be able to handle much more capacity.
The good news (credits to PC Mag) is that, as Starship progresses, we’re now starting to see signs of Starlink talking about gigabit speeds again. For example, SpaceX recently requested that the FCC allow it to make several updates to its v2 (second generation) satellites, which would bring them a bit closer to earth (i.e. lowering their altitudes from 525-535km to 480-475km) and allowing them to harness additional radio spectrum in the E band (i.e 71-74GHz downlink and 81-84GHz uplink).
The language used in this filing does not mince words, including talk of these changes making it possible to “deliver gigabit-speeds, low-latency broadband and ubiquitous mobile connectivity to all Americans and the billions of people around the world who lack adequate broadband.” The same goal was recently echoed by one of SpaceX’s top executives.
Michael Nicolls, VP of Starlink Engineering at SpaceX, said (X):
“The next generation @starlink satellite will launch on Starship and deliver gigabit connectivity anywhere in the world. We got one step closer to that reality today [13th Oct 2024] with an amazing Flight 5!”
Naturally, we still don’t know when this would become viable at the consumer level and rivals may yet attempt to block some of the recent FCC requests, which has happened before (LEO is an increasingly competitive environment). At the same time, we’ve heard all this talk of gigabit and fibre-like speeds before – some years ago now, although turning that aspiration into an affordable reality for consumers remains a slow, expensive and complex process.