Original article ISPreview UK:Read More
Network operator CityFibre, which has so far deployed their gigabit-capable full fibre broadband (FTTP) lines to cover 4.3 million UK premises (RFS), have said that recent newspaper “speculation” around the possibility of the business being acquired by Virgin Media (O2) are “unfounded“. The operator added that they were now close to securing a much-needed financing deal.
Just to recap. CityFibre currently still aspires to cover up to 8 million UK premises with their new FTTP (XGS-PON) broadband network – representing c.30% of the UK. But their original target of hitting that by the end of 2025 will not be achieved, and the operator has instead shifted their strategy to focus more on growth via mergers and acquisition (M&A) of smaller alternative networks (e.g. the deal to acquire Connexin – here, as well as Lit Fibre before that).
Like so many other network operators, CityFibre is also under pressure from high interest rates, rising build costs and competition, which has already impacted some of their commercial deployments. This tends to make it more of a challenge to raise fresh investment, too. On top of that, one of the operator’s key ISP partners, TalkTalk (accounting for c.150k CityFibre customers), is struggling in ways that could risk wider harm in the future (here).
Despite this, reports from earlier this year had indicated that CityFibre were working toward securing a crucial c.£1.5bn financing package, which was said to reflect a £500m equity financing deal with existing investors (here) and around £1bn of incremental debt funding – roughly enough liquidity to keep them fuelled through to mid-2027 and to support their M&A drive. But that deal has yet to emerge.
The latest development sees the Telegraph reporting that two of CityFibre’s major investors (Mubadala and Goldman Sachs), as well as some of their lenders, have in recent months approached the parents of Virgin Media and O2 (i.e. Liberty Global and Telefonica) to discuss options, including a potential sale (perhaps not for the first time). But the alleged exploratory talks didn’t go very far and are not thought to be ongoing.
A CityFibre spokesman said:
“Any speculation about a potential sale is unfounded. CityFibre is in a strong position and we expect to announce details of our financing shortly, supporting our role in consolidating the sector and accelerating CityFibre’s next phase of growth.”
Crucially, the company’s shareholders have also issued a statement, which says they “remain committed to CityFibre’s long-term success and are actively engaged in supporting the company’s next phase of growth“. ISPreview’s own sources have similarly indicated that the future financing deal could end up being worth more than £1.5bn and is expected to be agreed in the next few weeks, before the end of July (existing funding is due to run out around mid-2025).
According to a previous note from analyst James Ratzer, in 2025 and beyond, it’s expected that CityFibre will likely only build FTTP out c.300k homes per annum organically, largely to fulfil their Project Gigabit contracts. But the operator still aspires to add around 1 million premises each year, which suggest c.700,000 will be coming from M&A deals (c.100k – 185k of this was covered by the Connexin deal).
The catch is that consolidating alternative networks tends to be a slow, complex and often costly process – particularly with many altnets still harbouring an inflated idea of their own asset values. CityFibre’s strategy around it is thus still somewhat unproven, although most industry observers expect to see more consolidation, which only becomes more likely as other altnets begin running out of funding.
Finally, the idea of an acquisition by VMO2 and nexfibre’s parents also seems highly questionable, not least due to the high level of overbuild between the networks. Not to mention that VMO2 and nexfibre’s network expansion, as well as their wholesale plans, seem to have taken a hit after debt-laden Telefónica began a strategic review of their business (here and here). But Liberty Global does still see UK consolidation as a strategy they may pursue, with other operators.